Wars in Progress

Here is my current list of Wars in Progress (May 6, 2012). They might better be labeled “Armed Conflicts” since most hardly rise to the level of a serious “war.” Blog post on most recent update is here.

Afghanistan/Pakistan
Iraq/Turkey
Sudan/Chad/CAR
Yemen
Somalia/Ethiopia
Syria
D.R. Congo
Israel/Palestine
India
Burma
Thailand
Philippines
Colombia
Nigeria

To get onto my list, two or more armed groups have to be engaged in ongoing lethal violence over political objectives. Terrorism counts but organized crime doesn’t, nor does government violence against unarmed demonstrators.  The Uppsala Conflict Data Project has a more extensive list (with more smaller conflicts) with more exact criteria.

Some of these wars could be counted as several wars (which is one reason I don’t like counting numbers of wars as a measure of how extensive war is). In this list I have grouped them as “a war” even if a number of armed conflicts overlap with different groups and objectives.

Here is my map as of May 2012:

Here is some narrative about the state of these conflicts:

Afghanistan/Pakistan – The big one. The international community is there, the U.S. military in force, Taliban, al Qaeda, nukes. None too clear how it’s going recently.

Iraq/Turkey – Winding down, unless it blows up again. In mid-2011 the armed conflict between Turkey and Kurdish militants based in northern Iraq heated up, with several lethal skirmishes, and has continued since.

Sudan/Chad/CAR – The genocide in Darfur was mainly in 2004, and the north-south war ended five years ago. The south voted for independence, which was achieved in July 2011. Except they’re still at odds over Abyei, and fighting has been happening in South Kordofan, allied to the south but included in the north when Sudan split. Border clashes took place in spring 2012. Add in several intermittent armed conflicts in Chad and Central African Republic that cross borders when they flare up. The peaceful independence of the South after so many years of war is a big deal, despite all the challenges remaining.

Yemen – Several conflicts are ongoing amidst the political chaos. Most importantly, Islamic militants in the south have seized some towns and the government is trying to contain them.

Somalia/Ethiopia – Drags on. Ugandan troops with the African Union have restored government control of the Somali capital, pushing back the hard-line Islamic militants who still control much of the country. Famine is no longer threatening millions but there are still a lot of hungry people.

Syria – Government massacres of citizens is not war, but fighting is now pretty ongoing between government and Free Syrian Army.

D.R. Congo – Sporadic but really nasty in certain eastern locations.

Israel/Palestine – Sixty years and counting.  Are we there yet?

India – Nasty little Maoist insurgencies of long standing, one now in a cease-fire. No recent skirmishes with Pakistan across the lines in disputed Kashmir.

Burma – Still fighting with ethnic groups along borders, though cease-fire with one is continuing.

Thailand – Some insurgent attacks in the far south.

Philippines – Occasional fighting with rebels on remote islands.

Colombia – Wound down from a Marxist rebellion to a drug war, basically.

Nigeria -Goes on and off my list in recent years. Amnesty and cease-fire in the Niger Delta but with occasional fighting; recent lethal fighting in the north along religious lines. Sad day when the Islamist terrorists blew up the UN building in 2011.